A Profitable Data-Driven In-Play Corner Betting Strategy: The Art of Timing and Statistics
Introduction
Betting on corners in football matches has become an increasingly popular form of sports betting. Unlike traditional betting methods which focus primarily on the final outcome of a match, corner betting is more nuanced, offering a different perspective to analyze and predict the flow of a football game. This article aims to explore a profitable statistics-driven betting stragety on last 10 minutes total corner market.
1. When Do Corner Kicks Occur?
Many people believe that corner kicks occur mainly due to offensive play, which is true, but it's not the whole picture. More importantly, shots contribute to the occurance of corner kicks. When the attacking team takes a shot on target, and it's saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by a defender, the ball often goes out of the end line, resulting in a corner kick. An analysis of the 2022-2023 England Premier League season revealed a correlation between the number of attacks, shots and corner kicks.
The comparision between Figure 1 and Figure 2 shows the occurance of corner kicks is more related to shots than attacks.
Figure 1: correlation between corners and attacks
Figure 2: correlation between corners and shots
In the last 10 minutes of a football match, there are often goals and corner kicks. Figure 3 and Figure 4 show the corners per 5 minutes and per 10 minutes of the England Premier League 2022-2023 season. We can see that the number of and corners in the last 10 minutes is 1.5 times higher than in other periods. The final 10 minutes are crucial for teams trailing to equalize or for those want to break a tie, leading to aggressive attacking and shooting.
Figure 3: corners per 5 minutes
Figure 4: corners per 10 minutes
2. Choosing the Right Match
The key to successful in-play corner betting is selecting the right match. There are three factors need to be considered.
2.1 Strong teams trailing at home
A strong team behind in the 80th minute will likely intensify its attack, especially if they are only behind by one goal.
2.2 Increased number of attacks and shots
Pay attention to the number of attacks and shots, particularly between the 70th and 80th minutes. This metric indicates that the trailing team has started a counter-attack.
3. Waiting for the Right Moment
Once you've selected the match, the next step is to wait for the right moment. At this point, it's necessary to have a comprehensive understanding of the match.
3.1 Asian corner line over current corners by 1
The best time to bet is when the Asian corner line exceeds the current corners by 1. At this point, Only one corner kick can lead to a void bet, reducing the risk of loss. Waiting until the line over by 0.5 is often too late, and if the line is over 1.5, you might lose due to only one corner kick. However this is not a fixed rule. Bettors need to make their own judgment based on the situation.
4. Checking History Data before placing bet
When you are ready to place a bet following the above judgment, do not forget to refer to statistical data for making the final decision. Betting is a game of probabilities, and statistical data provides us with the maximum likelihood estimate of these probabilities. TotalCorner offers statistics on the number of corner kicks for each team in the 80-90 minute interval of their historical matches. When the data shows that a team's probability of earning a corner kick during this time is higher than the probability implied by the current odds, that's our opportunity to profit. Probability and mathematics will ensure a positive expected return on investment.
Figure 5: corner stats for last 10 minutes
5. Example
This was a match from the 2022-2023 Premier League season, featuring Southampton at home against Nottingham Forest. The pre-match odds of 1X2 was 2.0, 3.5, and 3.6, respectively. Southampton, situated in the relegation zone, was up against Nottingham Forest, another team in a similar position. The home team, therefore, was determined to win, or at the very least, secure a draw. By the 80th minute, Southampton was trailing 0-1. In the final 10 minutes of the match, the home team was expected to launch an intensive attack in an effort to equalize. Furthermore, upon reviewing Southampton’s historical data(Figure 5), it was noted that their average number of corners between the 80th and 90th minutes was 2.3. Taking all this into consideration, it was expected that there would be at least one corner kick during the 80-90 minute window. At the 85th minute the number of corners was 6. And the total corner odds was 2.0(Over 7.0), 1.8(Under 7.0). Based on above analysis, it was a strategic decision to boldly bet on there being more than 7 corners. Ultimately, the home team won two corners in the 88th minute, securing a win for the bet.
Figure 6: 4th Jan 2013, Southampton vs Nottm-Forest live events and total corner odds
created at 11th Jan 2024